There are many big-time schools of thought. Most have fancy names. My favorite is one nobody writes or talks about. The YeahBut School of Thought.

We see YeahBut thinking in lots of places. Including the Fed. The Federal Reserve. Don’t go to sleep on me, now. I won’t bore you with dry stuff about the dry and stuffy Fed.

The guys at the Fed predict where the economy is going. They then raise or lower interest rates. Lots of us keep tabs on what they predict. These are some of the greatest economic thinkers of our times.

When Obama was in the White House the Fed guys saw rainbows. They kept predicting strong growth. But the economy grew more slowly than they predicted. Quarter after quarter. “Yeah, it is disappointing, but just wait.” That is what they told us.

Trump moved into the White House. Now the Fed guys saw gloom. Slow growth had set in the 12 months before Trump. They predicted more of the same. With every move Trump’s administration made they basically said “Yeah, it might help, but…”

So they predicted more slow growth. But, lo, the economy grew faster than they predicted. “Yeah, that’s nice, but…”  So they grudgingly predicted a bit more growth. Next quarter, same thing. The economy grew faster than the Fed predicted. “Yeah, we see the growth, but…” Next quarter, same thing.

Job numbers rose. Unemployment rates fell. People came off the sidelines to go back to work. The number of people on food stamps fell. The number of people who claimed they were disabled and couldn’t work also dropped. “Yeah, these things look good, but…”

My point is simple. Most of us slip on certain lenses. We see events through those lenses. No matter what happens we stubbornly stick with those lenses. Maybe it is because we need to save face. Maybe it is because we are stubborn. Maybe it is because our political leanings color our lenses.

The Fed guys won’t change their lenses. They convinced themselves this country’s economy was doomed to low growth for many years to come. Along comes a president who scoffs at them. A lot of them hate him. This hatred distorts their views. It welds those lenses to their eyes.

A lot of them cling to the economic policies of the last administration. They believe those were the right policies. They do not believe opposite policies will work. When those new policies work, they say “Yeah, we see much faster growth, but…” But, but, but. But this can’t last. But this really came from our earlier policies. Even though back then we predicted slow growth. But this will lead to inflation. But look at the deficit. YeahBut.

A lot of this is human nature. You know people whose guiding philosophy is YeahBut. Yeah, I am feeling good. But I usually get a cold in October. Yeah, the job is going along nicely. But with this outfit, you never know. Yeah, my stocks are way up. But there’s a crash coming for sure.

There is an old story about the young woman who thinks she is ugly. Her nose is too big. A surgeon talks her into cosmetic surgery. The results are startling. He crafts a nose of a movie star for her.

She studies her image in a mirror. “Yeah, it’s nice. But I still feel ugly.” YeahBut lenses.

Rare are the people who change lenses.  Rare are those whose lenses are plain glass.  Rare are those who love one political party but will give credit to another party for policies that work.

We have people who grew famous predicting something that never came about. Two years ago Nobel laureate Paul Krugman predicted absolute immediate doom for our stock market. Because hateful Trump was elected. He damned the Trump tax cuts as a “nothing burger”. Utterly wrong, he was. But he refuses to slip off those lenses. Yeah, things look good, but…

Fifty years ago Stanford Professor Paul Ehrlich became world famous. For predicting utter devastation from over- population. Mass starvation was only the beginning, he told us. And it would begin post-haste.

None of his predictions came about. He has never admitted his thinking was flawed. Apparently he still believes doom is right around the corner. The corner is a few more blocks down the street than he predicted. In other words: Yeah, the world did not croak as I predicted, but…

I nominate both these profs and many others. Along with the Fed’s gloomy band of prognosticators. I nominate them for honorary degrees from YeahBut University. I am certain they will say “Gee, what a nice honor, but…”

From Tom…as in Morgan.

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